fake news
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Illegal Voting by Non-Citizens in the U.S.: Facts, Statistics, and Context
Here’s a summary of what credible research and reporting tell us about the scale of illegal voting by non-citizens in the U.S., along with how uncertain the estimates are:
What Studies & Investigations Show
1. Very rare occurrence in practice
The Brennan Center for Justice reviewed many state investigations and court cases and found that confirmed instances of non-citizens voting are extremely rare. (Brennan Center for Justice) For example:
- One study found only 14 convictions of non-citizens for voting over the first three years of a DOJ fraud initiative. (Brennan Center for Justice)
- In large states or in investigations with many hundreds of thousands or millions of registered voters, the number of non-citizens found to have voted is often in double digits. (Brennan Center for Justice)
2. Specific state findings
- In Iowa, a review found 35 non-citizens voted in the 2024 general election, out of more than 1.6 million voters. (AP News)
- Also in Iowa, there were 277 non-citizens registered among about 2.3 million registered voters. (AP News)
These numbers are very small fractions of total voters or registrations. (AP News)
3. Claims with larger estimates, but high uncertainty
- A study by Just Facts in 2024 claimed that 10%-27% of non-citizen adults are illegally registered to vote. (justfacts.org)
- That estimate implies 2-5 million non-citizen adults could be registered to vote. (justfacts.org)
- The same study projects that 5%-13% of non-citizens might illegally vote in federal elections, which translates (on their model) to 1.0 million to 2.7 million illegal votes in certain elections unless additional safeguards are in place. (justfacts.org)
But many experts caution that these larger estimates are highly uncertain because of small sample sizes, potential misreporting, issues identifying non-citizens vs. naturalized citizens, and methodological challenges. (Snopes)
What to Keep in Mind: Limitations & Context
- “Registered non-citizen” ≠ “non-citizen who voted”
Being on a voter registration roll doesn’t always mean someone actually voted. Some studies estimate registration but not actual votes. (justfacts.org)
- Misidentification & data errors
Some people report they’re non-citizens but later naturalize, or there are errors in matching names/records. Some investigations turn up registrations attributed to “non-citizens” that actually were already citizens or that there was no proof the person voted. (AP News)
- Extremely small impact
Even in studies that find non-citizen voting, it’s almost always so small in number that it is not considered to affect the outcome of elections in a meaningful way. (Brennan Center for Justice)
Bottom Line
- Illegal voting by non-citizens does happen but confirmed cases are very rare.
- Estimations that suggest high numbers (millions) are disputed and involve big uncertainties.
- In most states and most elections, the fraction of votes cast by non-citizens is so small that it’s negligible in terms of impact.
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